The political scientist assessed China’s reaction to the visit of new foreign delegations to Taiwan

Political scientist Gubin: the situation with Taiwan distracts China from other geopolitical tasks Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan:

The visits of delegations from different countries to the island of Taiwan are necessary to divert China’s attention from solving other geopolitical problems. One of the consequences of this may be that a number of international partners will refuse to cooperate with the state. This is the opinion in a conversation with Lenta.” was expressed by political scientist, associate professor of the Far Eastern Federal University, Candidate of Political Sciences Andrey Gubin.

Earlier, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, doubted that the administration of US President Joe Biden did not coordinate the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. This is reported by the publication Axios. It is also reported that a delegation from Japan is planning a visit to Taiwan, and in October — a delegation from Canada.

Consistent provocations “Pelosi is the third person in the US political hierarchy, so her visit really was an unprecedented step,” Gubin said.

— This happened only in 1997, when the island was visited by a politician who held the same position. Then China’s reaction was also quite angry, but it did not have the same capabilities as today.”

The political scientist recalled that another delegation of parliamentarians had recently visited Taiwan, but China did not single out this episode separately, mentioning only that it was provocative, violating the principle of one China.

In any case, China has not finished the exercises, the training blockade of the island has not stopped. He continues to demonstrate his capabilities of violating sea and air communications, working out various kinds of operations by aviation and naval forces, the Japanese delegation, according to the political scientist, will also visit the island not for the first time: it came a month ago, and it included two ex-defense ministers.

China reacted quite alarmingly to this.

“It should also be taken into account here that since the end of last year Tokyo has almost officially declared that the defense of Taiwan is one of the tasks of Japan’s military activities. The country has even begun to deploy forces on islands located near Taiwan. Naturally, such forces pose a threat to China. And given that Japan is a military ally of the United States, there is also a risk that China will take certain actions of an overwhelming nature against the Japanese,” Gubin admitted.

Nancy and the red dragon.Pelosi made China very angry by coming to Taiwan. How will Beijing respond to the Americans?On August 4, 2022, not only Japan and Canada spoke about the visit to Taiwan, but also the Germans, the British, and other EU representatives.

The political scientist suggested that such parliamentary-level visits would continue. Moreover, in his opinion, the initiators here will not be the states themselves, but Washington, as part of the global confrontation with China.

“Despite the fact that such visits do not pose an immediate danger, the precedent is certainly unpleasant. He points out that more and more members of the international community belonging to the collective West can establish ties with the island’s authorities and demonstrate support for Taiwanese democracy, which sets one of the main goals of gaining independence,” the Sinologist explained.

According to him, in order to make a demand for independence, Taiwan needs to enlist international support and security guarantees. But such an option is unacceptable for China and, moreover, may become a threshold for the use of military force.

Beijing has stated this repeatedly. He said that as soon as the words about independence and international support are heard, it will become a clear signal of separatism, and the Gubin political analyst of the conflict “It is quite difficult to assess the risks of a military clash here, because, at least for China, there is no expediency here, the organization of a military operation or any other force scenarios in relation to Taiwan is not justified- Gubin believes.

— But we see that the United States is forcing China to disperse its forces and resources, distracting from other geopolitical tasks. Apparently, they are hoping for inappropriate behavior of the PRC, random skirmishes.”

The political scientist considers the main task of China’s provocations to be its distraction from other geopolitical tasks. Constant tension forces the country to spend more effort and resources on resolving a potential conflict. In addition, such a situation within the PRC could potentially alienate international partners from cooperation with it.

Earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister and member of the State Council Wang Yi accused the United States of creating a crisis in Taiwan to strengthen the military presence. He noted that the United States has a habit of creating problems in order to use them later to implement its strategic plans.

The fact that the plane of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan became known on August 2. After that, the Chinese Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the visit of the American representative. They said that the arrival of the politician on the island violates the principle of one China, as well as the provisions enshrined in the Sino-American communique.

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