Possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Ukraine have become known

The Guardian’s author Sabbagh named five scenarios of the conflict in Ukraine in the next six months, The Guardian’s journalist Dan Sabbagh named five possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Ukraine in the next six months.

This became known from his article published in a British newspaper.

Sluggish conflict According to the first scenario, the conflict in the republic will drag on for at least another year, but its intensity will decrease.

According to the author of the article, Ukraine intends to return the lost territories, while in Russia, on the contrary, they are betting on further weakening of the enemy, including due to the approaching winter. At the same time, the journalist notes that both sides seem to him “exhausted in battles.”

Ineffective counteroffensive The second forecast comes from Kiev’s lack of means and opportunities for an effective counteroffensive.

According to Sabbagh, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have chosen a strategy of long-range missile strikes and sabotage in the rear, but it is unlikely that this will lead to the surrender of occupied settlements by the Russian military, which some Ukrainian officials hoped for.

“I’m still afraid of the open sky”Severodonetsk came under the control of the LPR. How did the townspeople survive the battles for the city?On August 8, 2022, Holding positions In accordance with the third scenario, Russia will continue to break forward due to massive artillery strikes, but will focus on maintaining the progress achieved and retaining the occupied territories of Ukraine.

The journalist suggested that such a strategy could be chosen due to its effectiveness and the need to minimize personnel losses.

According to the observer, winter will accelerate the onset of a new crisis in Ukraine.

He cited the assessment of a representative of one of the humanitarian organizations, according to which the cold season could lead to a new wave of migration and the likely outflow of two million refugees to Europe. Sabbagh also stressed that the West may suffer due to the increase in the cost of energy. At the same time, he expressed the opinion that next spring could be “the time for a new attack.”

Speaking about the fifth scenario, the journalist suggested that Western countries decide whether to lead Ukraine to victory or just help it stay afloat.

He noted that their support does not cover the needs of Kiev for weapons, and also pointed to the monthly budget deficit of the republic of five billion dollars, which does not allow the Ukrainian authorities to successfully deal with even humanitarian tasks.

On August 24, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu explained why the Russian military still decided to slow down the pace of the offensive during a special operation in Ukraine.

According to him, this was a conscious decision, which was due to the desire to minimize casualties among civilians. At the same time, the head of the department stressed that the Russian Armed Forces are providing humanitarian assistance in the territories taken under control, as well as restoring infrastructure and life support systems.

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