Coffee. Archive photo
Problems with the coffee crop in Latin America and Asia is already reflected in its value in global markets and will soon affect the price in Russia, the growth could be around 30%, reported RIA Novosti experts FoodNet working group of the National technological initiative (NTI).
“Coffee’s on the market will rise: global prices will increase by 10-15%, and in Russia by 30%. The price increase will be gradual, according to my estimates, until the next harvest season next year,” – said a leading expert working group Michael Czarna.
He explained that “the first blow to the coffee crop came to Colombia and Latin America in General, and these are regions where grown Arabica”. “This is due to climate change — drought, and diseases of trees. Therefore, the center for the cultivation of coffee has moved to Vietnam: there are trees in contrast to Colombia until you get sick, however, low yields have already noted, which will lead to more expensive coffee in the world”, – said the expert.
“For example, Robusta now in Vietnam opt worth more than two dollars per kilogram. You have to understand that the difference in retail is that there are already roasted coffee and in different countries by different methods, there is a marketing, packaging and logistics. In terms of rubles the cost of a pack of 1 kg comes out 1 thousand rubles”, – told Czarna.
However, he noted that “the harvest in some regions lasts 3-4 months, if he is going to return — the price return to the original levels, otherwise, we can expect the increased value of the product”.
“It is important to understand that the rise in price of coffee will increase the demand for alternative and cheaper options and substitutes carrot, acorn, chicory, flavors and others, and original coffee will start to be positioned as premium, suitable for “people with Mercedes, iPhone,” he added.
His colleague, the head of the segment “Technology and equipment for high-yielding agriculture,” working group of the market STI FoodNet Igor Kokoev added that “the prices for coffee have two components: biennial oscillations of the growing season, and relatively stable trend on the rise because of the deteriorating climatic conditions in the areas of cultivation”.
“First of all, it concerns the sort, more sensitive to temperature and humidity. The output of Arabica accounts for 60-70%. Therefore, the expectation of a General rise in prices really is analytical agencies, and manufacturers,” he said.