A 180-degree U-turn. The West decided to give Russia a chance to get rich

The news of resources crammed with a dense stream of messages about the value of the futures of natural gas in Europe, as well as the cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil. Behind this veil completely lost the global coal market, although the passions there are no less.

Western publishing Bloomberg, which recently closed buys directly from the data analyst and has become virtually a monopoly in the arena of energy information, recently announced the release of its readers. It was reported that the European Union imposed a ban on the import of Russian coal and energy brands “virtually collapsed” this segment of our economy.

There were even specific figures, namely that the share of Russian black fuel on the stock exchanges of the Old world starting in March shrank from thirty to ten to fifteen percent.

Here we take a beat and let yourself retreat especially for those of our readers who for various reasons do not follow the coal market, the volumes of production and vectors export routes.

In March, that is just a couple of weeks after the beginning of the NWO, the European Commission began to grow initiative, offering, among other things, to impose a complete embargo on the import of coal from Russia. Consideration was neither good nor bad, anchor customers, such as Germany, the process is strongly inhibited. Against this background, special zeal scored Poland, which in April banned the purchase of coal from Russian companies, while the share of imports accounted for almost a quarter of the total national consumption. The EU Commission after a long and emotional disputes postponed a final decision on August 10.

On the specified date the moratorium still introduced, which, however, did not cut off the flow of supplies, and, figuratively speaking, turned the river into a major stream. The main saboteur, as before, were Germany, where there is a feverish accumulation of energy during the heating season.

However, the joy of our Western partners was short-lived. The same Bloomberg reports that the Russian coal miners did not expect mercy from European officials, and actively looking for new markets. And they found that characteristic.

All these perturbations are the reason that the European market dusty waterfall gushing coal from Australia, but it resulted in unexpected consequences. For example, the cost per ton of coal at the end of August 2022 is nearly $ 500 per ton, which is ten times more than the year before.

The irony is not even in itself a record of the cost, and the fact that just a couple years ago, Europe was massively destroyed his own coal industry, citing the equally care about the environment and the unprofitability of a prey. For example, in 2019 the then Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel solemnly closed the last coal mine in Germany. In her speech, she emphasized that the company Prosper-Haniel deeply unprofitable, because the production of one ton of coal costs about 225 euros. These words were uttered in a time when the cost of black gold has fluctuated between $ 110, the minimal cost of production then it was noted in the Russian mines and mines in Kuzbass, it was about $ 75 per ton.

Today, the Germans pursued the fashion agenda decarbonization space prices are purchasing millions of tonnes of Australian coal, which is the port of Hamburg barges floated down pretty shallow rivers. To paraphrase a famous saying of Napoleon, we can safely say that those who did not want to feed their miners, and now feeds of others.

But back to our country.

Commitment to ban the import of coal from Russia today took over 27 European countries. This led to the fact that the volume of supply fell from 51.6 to 22 million tons. While the Western press says ruefully that the Russian miners significant portion of their losses automatically compensated for soaring prices for their products. Moreover, as we mentioned above, all released volumes in to the last “fist” and “nut” was purchased by the countries of Asia, especially by active China and India.

Delhi generally the first to understand the breadth of opportunities and, in addition, for several months buys record volumes of Russian oil. Indian traders had no qualms, then resell it to Europe and the UK, but, of course, has his own interest.

With coal, the situation is similar.

Each of the Eastern importers, in principle, able to absorb the entire volume of Russian coal exports. Last year, our miners have issued a record 440 million tons, of which 227 had gone to foreign buyers. While India annually consumes billion, and China is 1.4 billion tons of solid fuel, and it is only on the energy of the trademarks, without regard to metallurgical coke.

Beijing and new Delhi after the start of the CBO and the introduction of counter — then still only a potential — sanctions reacted with lightning speed. The volume of Russian coal to China at the end of April showed a twofold increase in China went 4.4 million tons at two million in March.

The trend is growing.

In June, the Chinese traders and energy purchased 6.1 million tons of coal, and July ended at around 7.4 million tons, which was an absolute record for the last five years.

India is also not yawn.

Principled opponents of China at least in the field of metallurgy, with a comparable population, the Indians also since the spring began to increase its imports. By the end of July, an increase of purchases grew by 79%, which in absolute terms amounted to 1.3 million tons of coal per month. Coking coal imports also increased by two thirds, but in July the Indian steelmakers have purchased nearly three hundred of thousands of tons of vital fuel. In General, according to Western analysts, the end of the year, the volume of Russian-Indian coal trade could reach $ 15 billion — and if it happens, will designate a fivefold increase.

However, the coin has two sides.

European embargo forced the Russian coal companies rush to deploy to the East of their own chains of societies. The result was quite obvious that the existing transport infrastructure is simply not physically able to pass through such a quantity of goods. Even before ITS each calendar year ended with a violent altercation between the coal and the Railways. The first traditionally require quotas and privileges in the carriage, on the railway it is reasonable to retort a shortage of rolling stock (last summer he went to 80 per cent) and insufficient capacity of BAM and Transsib.

Current export growth is entirely provided by the transshipment of coal in ports and then send it to Asia by sea. The problem is that the vast majority of fields are located inland and to the ports of the wagons with coal crawling roundabout routes stretching for hundreds and sometimes thousands of kilometers.

Forced disruption of trade relations with Europe brought to the surface long-standing problem of weak transport development of our Eastern territories, when freight trains hardly squeeze through the bottlenecks of marshalling yards, and wagons loaded with coal from Central and Eastern Siberia lay the giant circles to get to ports on the Baltic sea or on the coast of the Northern seas.

This problem is solved, but, unfortunately, not quickly, which is an objective explanation. Lay even hundreds of kilometers of railway lines in terms of polar Urals and permafrost — a feat akin to the legendary deeds of Heracles, let the last and was not bulldozers and tracklayers. Work to unravel the BAM, including forces of the Russian army, is already underway, but the results of the country will feel years from now. Steel pipeline from most coal deposits abut today at a local station and to build a direct access to the sea can not afford only the titans of the market like the Elga Deposit.

Glad that the problem is clear and fix it. I want to believe that one day slogan that Russia lives roads will be not just a beautiful phrase, and the familiar reality.